Maria Sakkari, ranked 33, opens her US Open against qualifier Robin Montgomery in the first round on Tuesday at 15:00 UTC. The Greek is the better player on paper; the American is the one who has already won three matches on these courts. They have never met.
Two form lines heading in opposite directions
Sakkari's summer has consisted mostly of half-matches. She took the opening set off Swiatek in Cincinnati and then won two games across the next two sets, and she led 4-1 in the Athens final against Krejcikova before losing the set in a tiebreak and the match. Even her wins have been laborious: 6-2 5-7 6-1 against Rakhimova.
Montgomery has the opposite habit. Branstine took the first set 6-2 in the final qualifying round and lost 2-6 6-2 6-2, and Grabher did much the same in Cincinnati before going down in three. Her left-handed serve buys cheap holds from the advantage court, and the New York crowd will be hers.
Where the extra games come from
Sakkari's first serve has been unreliable enough to invite exactly the kind of cumulative return pressure Montgomery applies. Neither player has recently sustained one level for two consecutive sets, which is the only way this match finishes short.
A deciding set settles the line on its own; a tiebreak or a 7-5 inside two sets does the job as well. The price implies a tidy straight-sets win for the higher-ranked player, which is the single script both of these players have spent the summer avoiding.
Prediction: Total Over 22.5 games, odds 2.07
