ドナ・ベキック — イガ・シフィオンテク の予想

Swiatek’s 6-2, 6-3 win over Gao restored rhythm, but it does not settle the question of how she handles a tougher test. Roig is still working on patience and a less rushed first ball after serve; Swiatek has said her timing was off against Zheng, and her two tie-breaks with Bouzkova were hardly a clean measure of control.

Vekic’s +6.5 games is the more useful angle. She has a big first serve and can bank games early: against Zhu, she dominated the first set and built a lead in the second before losing her way, then recovered in the decider. That is not dependable tennis, but it is enough to make a rout less automatic.

Swiatek’s wins over players near this level have not always created a wide margin: she beat Parry by six games, needed two tie-breaks against Bouzkova, and dropped a set to Sakkari. The four previous meetings with Vekic were each decided by four to six games. At 1.75, the cushion looks worth taking; Swiatek’s match-win price is too short.

The games total looks fairly set. The danger is Vekic’s second serve: her 1-6, 2-6 loss to Wang in Singapore showed how quickly things can unravel if Swiatek’s return takes over.