マリー・ブズコワ — ジェン・チンウェン の予想

Neither player has been keeping a lead safely. Zheng’s Florida reset is real: she beat Swiatek, came back from match point against Keys and took Rybakina to a decider. But in Beijing she needed three sets against Shi Han, then lost the first-set tie-break to Kalinskaya after having a chance to close the set.

Bouzkova also let Birrell back into their match before restoring order. Kartal took her to a decider; Swiatek pushed her into two tie-breaks. Zheng’s first strike meets Bouzkova’s rhythm changes and return pressure, a combination that can make her build points again rather than finish them quickly.

Over 21.5 games is the better price. Bouzkova to win has a case—she is fresher in Beijing and an awkward stylistic opponent—but Zheng’s US Open level makes the winner hard to call. Bouzkova +1.5 offers little extra cover if Zheng wins a close three-set match.

Zheng’s heavier workload, lingering cough and a home crowd that can become a distraction all argue against a clean performance. The risk is quick sets if breaks come in bunches; neither player has shown enough sustained control to make that the likeliest script.