イヴァ・ヨヴィッチ — イガ・シフィオンテク の予想

Swiatek’s hard-court level has come in patches: she failed to close against Zheng, needed two tie-breaks against Bouzkova and lost to Pegula in three. Against Vekic she turned a difficult match around, but only after losing the first set and falling behind in the second; Roig has described the current challenge as more mental than technical.

Jovic has defended her Guadalajara title without dropping a set, then won a high-quality three-setter against Eala. In Beijing she recovered from a set down against Dart and saved set points against Rakhimova. Her coaches’ point-to-point persistence is visible in those scores, not just in the praise.

Jovic +3.5 games covers almost any three-set match and close two-setters; it takes a clear straight-sets Swiatek win to beat it. At 1.915, the price is better than fair for a player whose opponent has yet to make her recent level routine.

The outright upset asks more of Jovic against elite defence, as the Gauff match showed. Over 21.5 is less clean: breaks can shorten sets. The main risk is the same Gauff pattern—Jovic’s serve fails to give her first strike, and Swiatek turns attacking shots into another ball.